A World in Disarray

If you got out the ol' time machine, headed back to, say, October 26, 1985, picked someone out at random, brought them to June 14, 2025, and asked them to give their assessment of the "state of the world" based solely on their observations, it seems improbable that they would have many hopeful things to say.

Yesterday, there were four major news stories, and they all speak to a country and a world that has some issues right now. We'll start with the Trump birthday parade, about which... there actually isn't all that much to say. We have written a couple of times this week about the various types of parades that you see in American culture, and noted that when there are soldiers parading (either active-duty or veteran), they are almost always one element of an event that also involves marching bands and cowboys on horses and floats and the like.

In writing about American parade history, we observed—correctly—that military-only parades are unusual in the U.S. because Americans are, and have been, uncomfortable with the sort of militarism associated with the "empires" era of European history. However, yesterday's event reminded us of a second problem that we should have mentioned and didn't: Military-only parades are kind of boring. For example, the famous Grand Review of the Armies after the Civil War involved 6 hours of company after company of soldiers marching by the reviewing stand for two straight days. President Andrew Johnson and General-in-Chief Ulysses S. Grant both privately told people that they were bored to tears, because outside of the occasional Zouave regiment, once you've seen one company of marching soldiers, you've seen them all. Of course, they still had to sit there the whole time and pretend to be interested.

We watched a fair bit of footage of the parade yesterday, and the event had a very sterile, low-energy feel to it, like everyone involved was just going through the motions. Even Donald Trump, who was the driving force behind the whole thing, and whose birthday was being commemorated, looked entirely uninterested whenever the cameras were pointed at him:

This is not just one moment taken out of context; he looked like that for nearly the entire time. In fact, there were times when it appeared that Trump was about to fall asleep.

By all accounts, the most interesting part of the presentation was the World War II-vintage tanks and artillery, in part because that stuff is historical, and in part because that stuff is a change of pace. In retrospect, maybe they should have mixed in some floats and marching bands, after all. There was a concert by Lee Greenwood beforehand (there may be a law that says Greenwood has to perform at any major event where Trump is present, we are not sure). There was also a physical fitness competition, which was somehow even more boring than the parade. If people really want to see physically fit people climb ropes and scale walls, they can just watch American Ninja Warrior.

It is possible that Trump's less-than-enthusiastic visage was due to lower-than-expected turnout. Maybe the poor attendance was because people were not all that interested, maybe it was because the start time was moved up half an hour to avoid the bad weather coming later in the day, maybe it was something else. In any event, there was plenty of visual evidence of a lot of empty seats. For example:

We can't find any sort of official report on the crowd size, but: (1) the Department of Defense had prepared for a crowd as large as 200,000 people, and (2) several unofficial reports put the total attendance at less than half of that. It's hard to know without being on the scene, but given the videos and photos we saw, this seems very plausible. Plus, Trump has yet to send out a "truth" bragging about the crowd size, which could be instructive. Sometimes the lack of evidence is, itself, evidence. If we assume an attendance of 85,000 people and a final price tag in the middle of the estimated range ($25 million to $45 million), then it would mean the government spent a little over $400 for every person in attendance. Good investment, right?

On the whole, the politicians wanted nothing to do with the parade. A few Republicans were in attendance, and Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) was sitting just a few feet from Trump on the reviewing stand, but most of the red team found a reason to be out of town for the weekend. A sizable number of Democrats headed home to join the "No Kings" protests, and the rest made themselves scarce. We only saw one Democratic member of Congress who had something positive to say about the parade, and you already know exactly who it was. Here's Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA):

This parade is comprised of our sons, daughters, mothers and fathers—the very best of us.

Regardless of your politics, it's appropriate to celebrate the 250 years of sacrifice, dedication and service.

It's not quite that simple. Either Fetterman doesn't understand that, which is bad, or he does understand it and is pretending otherwise, which is worse. We also remain steadfast in our dislike for the notion that military personnel are somehow a cut above all of the other service-minded individuals in American society. Yes, there are many heroic people in the armed forces who are models of selflessness and sacrifice. But there are also many nurses and orderlies, teachers, laborers, firefighters, police officers, non-profit staffers, Peace Corps volunteers, etc. for whom that is equally true. It is either ignorant or disrespectful (or both) to privilege the work of America's soldiers above all those other folks who are part of the glue that holds American society together.

And with that said, let's move on to story #2, which is the protests. There were a few hundred freelance protesters in Washington, DC, for the parade, but the great majority heeded the advice of the "No Kings" organizers and stayed away from the nation's capital. Protesters did take to the streets pretty much everywhere else, however. We have seen sources that say there were "2,000 protests" and sources that say there were "protests in 2,000 cities." Those are not the same thing; we know for certain there were multiple protests in Los Angeles (one on the westside, one downtown, and one in the Valley). Presumably, there were other large cities for which this was the case, as well.

Speaking of Los Angeles, that would appear to be where things got ugliest. For the downtown protest, which was the largest one, the police (and maybe the National Guard; accounts vary) were on high alert, and tear gas was deployed. This is pretty tame, by L.A. standards, but it's also not entirely peaceful either. We did not see any other reports of trouble from other cities; even the biggies (New York City, Chicago, Philadelphia) apparently remained very calm. Is this because some Los Angeles protesters are looking for a confrontation? Because the city is on edge right now? Because law enforcement in the City of Angels has a hair trigger at the moment? Could be all of these things.

Exactly how many people protested yesterday? The "No Kings" organizers are claiming 11 million, which is probably... optimistic. Still, there are pretty reliable numbers at the city level, including 100,000 people in Philadelphia and 75,000 people in Chicago, so the total number was certainly well into the seven figures, and thus well north of the total attendance for the Trump parade. The Donald was dismissive of the protests, declaring: "No, no, we're not a king, we're not a king at all." You forgot to add "We are not amused," Mr. President. In any event, the argument might be a bit more persuasive if Donald I didn't refer to himself in the third person.

We have gotten many reports and photos from readers who participated in the protests, and we know that others are coming from folks who were a little too tired/busy to whip up an e-mail after getting home. So, we're going to give readers some more time to communicate with us, and we're also going to think about the best way to organize things. We'll run a series of reports this week. For now, we will just share this report from reader B.U. in St. Louis, MO:

I had no idea how much I needed that experience today. My wife and I went to a "No Kings" event in suburban St. Louis County with little idea what to expect. We found full parking lots and a great scene! Hundreds and hundreds of us lined both sides of a wide, multilane road for blocks. Car after car honked appreciatively with people waving, pumping fists, and flashing peace signs (V for Victory signs?). A car drove slowly with windows down so the World War II vet inside could wave and give thumbs up. A public bus driver honked her horn and waved. A semi driver, too. Sure, a woman driving a Cadillac gave the finger out her window, and another car rolled by with Trump flags. But the "No Kings" side outnumbered them seventy jillion to one.

Three different times, I choked up and tears came to my eyes. My wife, too. We were overcome at the feeling of solidarity. We, of course, knew intellectually that we are not only not alone but in a majority. Seeing it, feeling it, being in the thick of it was something altogether different. Here's hoping everyone who attended one of these got those feelings, and here's hoping it keeps us engaged and making a difference.

Thanks, B.U.! Sometimes protests are as much for the protesters as they are for their audience.

The third story of the day, as we now take a grim turn, is the assassination of Minnesota House Democratic Caucus Leader Melissa Hortman. She and her husband were killed late Friday night/early Saturday morning, while her colleague state Sen. John Hoffman (DFL-MN) and his wife were shot and survived.

For a while on Saturday, it was being reported that authorities suspected the killings were "politically motivated." It would certainly be one heck of a coincidence if they weren't, since the Hortmans and the Hoffmans lived 9 miles apart. Later in the day, the FBI identified a suspect; it's 57-year-old Vance Boelter. He was peripherally involved in Minnesota politics, but his primary political activity appears to have been: (1) writing documents, now in the possession of the FBI, that fairly well can be called "manifestos" and (2) traveling to Africa to proselytize, giving talks in which he promoted evangelical Christianity and denounced American liberals, particularly their attitudes on abortion and LGTBQ rights. In the past several years, we have seen many headlines declaring "Immigrant Commits [SOME CRIME]." We did not see a single headline yesterday declaring "Deeply Religious Straight White Christian Man Assassinates State Lawmaker in Cold Blood." Odd.

By all accounts, Hortman was a giant in Minnesota politics, and was the sort of public-minded person we describe in the paragraph above, where we push back against John Fetterman. At this point, we might try to tell her story, at least a little bit. However, we don't have to, because we've already heard from reader K.R. in Austin, TX, for whom this story is personal. So, the floor is yours, K.R.:

Early this morning, Melissa Hortman and her husband were killed in their home. She is not a random politician, especially to me.

In 1997, my state representative, Bill Haas, wrote and passed a law against gay marriage in Minnesota. Note that it was already illegal, but he felt the need to pass a law specifying that it was illegal.

This inspired me to help his opponent in the 1998 election... Melissa Hortman. I was one of very few volunteers on that campaign. I spent many hours door-knocking with her, just the two of us. I didn't know her before that campaign. However, during the time I spent with her, I learned she was a smart, caring person who was passionate about using government to make life better for all of us.

She lost that campaign.

Four years later, I helped her again. She had a better campaign organization. I spent many hours again. I marched in a parade with her. I even got to meet Sen. Paul Wellstone (DFL-MN) who gave a passionate speech to some door knockers for her.

She lost that campaign.

Two years later, she tried again. I helped her once again. This time, a group of four students from a college in another state volunteered to run her campaign. They were all political science students who wanted to run campaigns for a living later. They were amazingly effective, and her persistence paid off.

She won that campaign.

Her persistence, passion, and true love for helping others made her very effective. She was named the most effective legislator of the year more than once.

Eventually, she became Speaker of the Minnesota House, serving in that post for 6 years. She was very effective at getting helpful laws passed. She was a beliver that the party should not just be for the suburbs and cities. She took into account the need of the rural areas as well, which is fitting since the Democratic Party in Minnesota is actually called the DFL—the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

The most recent House was split 67-67. As part of a power sharing agreement, she stood down as speaker, but she was still the party leader.

I talked to her through the years, and although we didn't interact much in recent years, I considered her a friend. I don't know why someone would kill such a wonderful human being.

This picture is of a flyer from one of the campaigns I worked on. I believe it was the 1998 campaign:

Our thanks, and our condolences. K.R.

We also wanted to pass along one other "No Kings" report, for reasons that will be obvious in a moment. This is from J.D. in Cold Spring, MN:

For what is worth, reporting from Minnesota. The first news of the day reported the tragic news of the assassination of Minnesota state Representative Mellisa Hortman and her husband, and the attempted assassination of state Senator John Hofman and his wife. On Thursday, you worried about what might happen if someone were to be killed by the military presence in L.A. Readers are probably already familiar with the details of the Minnesota assassination, but I thought a local perspective might be of value.

We were planning to attend the local "No Kings" rally, but the state news this morning was soon filled with advisories from both Gov. Tim Walz (DFL-MN) and the State Patrol to stay away from the rallies. The suspect was still at large and by then the authorities knew that he had written a manifesto threatening violence against others. Local political leaders who were scheduled to attend our rally were required to shelter in place with police presence around their homes. But our local organizer soon notified us that the rally would go forward—in her words: "we will not back down!" It turns out that we were not the only people who were even more motivated to attend and protest.

The local rally was in St Cloud—a purple dot within a very red district (Tom Emmer, R, is our congressman). The April "Hands Off" rally was attended by an estimated 2,000 people—the "No Kings" protest was considerably larger. My guess was that it had close to double the attendance of the April rally. (Both sides of the main state highway passing through the city for 4-5 blocks; 3-4 people deep.)

This time the city required organizers to pay for police presence and barricades. This was a worthy investment. In April, MAGA supporters drove near the protesters, often revving their engines and blowing dirty black diesel smoke near the crowds. Today I witnessed police pulling over several trucks and stopping these acts. In April, the large trucks with people flipping us the bird (readers will probably be surprised to hear that they were all driven by males under the age of 40!) were almost equal to those supporters who honked in support. Today, overwhelmingly the traffic were supporters, honking, waving, showing signs of support. The mood was somber, but determined.

News reports tell a similar story across the state. Tens of thousands of people showed up in St Paul, despite very widespread public advisories to stay away. Similar stories are being told across the state. If anything, the assassination resulted in more people, and more determined people, turning out. As of late night on Saturday, authorities have identified a right-wing, pro-Trump and "pro-life" fanatic as the suspect.

Too often in the past I've thought that the most recent chaotic event might turn the tide against Trump. I won't make that mistake again. But today, as sad as it was, is cause for hope.

It is worth reiterating that when you create the political context that Trump has scrupulously worked to create, with harsh "us vs. them" rhetoric, and with an approach to dissent that is meant to escalate and to create "crackdown theater," you are most certainly laying the groundwork for extreme violence against politicians. Put another way, and to be very, very blunt, Hortman's blood is (at least partly) on Trump's hands. He's not going to change, in part because this is what he does, and in part because he's not clever enough to realize that this doesn't just go one way. If you help make it OK to act violently against "the other side," you also help make it OK for "the other side" to act violently against you. It's not a coincidence that Adolf Hitler was the subject of at least four assassination attempts and that Trump has been the subject of at least two.

And finally, the fourth big news story of the weekend is that Iran and Israel keep lobbing missiles at each other. As always, the geopolitics here are not our bailiwick. Earlier this week, we recommended reading Al Jazeera and Haaretz. In response to that, T.J.C. in Baltimore, MD, wrote in to say:

If I might be so bold, The Times of Israel (or its hebrew sister-site, Z'man Yisrael) are a better judge of things in Israel than Haaretz. Haaretz has tended so far to the left in recent years that it's not an accurate representation of what Israelis think, and is lambasted as "the official newspaper of Palestine" in some circles.

Not that The Times of Israel is perfect either, but it's certainly more balanced and reasonable than Israel HaYom or The Jerusalem Post, and is usually on top of what's going on in terms of breaking news.

Very good. So, consider putting The Times of Israel on your geopolitics reading list.

As to the domestic politics angle, Donald Trump is claiming that while he opposed the initial strike by Israel, he now supports Benjamin Netanyahu's plan. Does anyone really believe this? Netanyahu is going to do what he's going to do, and Trump can either claim to be on board (and save face) or can publicly admit that he has little control over his supposed "friend." Of course the President is going to choose the former.

Trump has also declared, as per usual, that "we can easily get a deal done" to end the conflict. Either he never learns, or his base and his supporters in the media never do. Oh, and at the same time he's talking peace, he's also waving his fist in the direction of Iran, and warning that if they make any move against American interests, they will suffer retaliation "at levels never seen before." There may be diplomatic contexts where you can talk peace and yet also wave your sword around at that same time; this is not one of them. Persians have a very strong honor-shame culture, and a bedrock of Iranian politics is standing up to American aggression. So, if Trump wants to get out his di** and wave it around, he's going to forestall any chance of taking the lead in securing a peaceable resolution. There goes another Nobel Peace Prize. He's got a better shot at sharing the Nobel Prize for Medicine with Robert Kennedy Jr., for making polio great again.

And indeed, Israel is trying to get the U.S. to jump in, while Iran is blaming the U.S. for the Israeli attack, and so is laying the groundwork for potential aggression against America. We think it is very unlikely that the U.S. will undertake a new war in the Middle East, particularly against Iran. However, it's considerably more likely today than it was just a few days ago. And Trump, with his ill-considered words and his military parades, not to mention his near-total inability to influence Netanyahu, certainly isn't doing anything right now to take the temperature down.

We're going to stop there for today. We already dropped 12,000 words on readers on Friday, and another 11,000 more yesterday. We can only get away with so much, and if we tried to run letters today, the total would run to five figures yet again. We'll run some of the letters we had set aside for today next weekend. (Z)

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